NZ government needs to work with Pacific to address climate change

13 April 2007

The Pacific is facing a grim outlook of rising sea levels, devastating cyclones and climate refugees. Rae Julian says New Zealand needs to work with its Pacific Island partners to develop an urgent strategy for the region to cope with the potential economic and environmental challenges.

Whichever way you look at it, our neighbours in the Pacific will be among the big casualties of climate change. 

In the past, the New Zealand government and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) have responded on an ad hoc basis to crises such as tsunamis and cyclones. But the dire predictions over climate change show that there is a need for the work being carried out as part of the overall Pacific Plan to be speeded up. Therefore, the New Zealand government will need to increase the level of aid to the region.

The worst case scenario is that we could see thousands of displaced Pacific Islanders but whatever the future holds it is clear the Pacific is particularly vulnerable.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report predicts sea level rise of up to 0.59 metres by the end of the century, virtually drowning small Pacific atolls such as Tuvalu. It is likely that Tuvalu's entire population of 11,600 will become 'climate refugees' as atolls and other low-lying islands become uninhabitable. The question is where will these people go – New Zealand or other Pacific Islands?

Currently New Zealand has an annual ballot to grant residence to 75 citizens from Tuvalu per year under the Pacific Access Category. This would be a ridiculous level if the entire country's population had to move. At this rate it would take 147 years to bring all of the Tuvaluans here, should a joint decision be made that that was the best outcome for them.

As sea temperatures increase, so does the intensity of cyclones. Countries such as the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Samoa and the Cook Islands will become more vulnerable to devastation as the number of intense cyclones increase.

Our government and New Zealand NGOs have been particularly active in helping to rebuild communities and infrastructure following cyclones and tsunamis as well as helping with disaster preparedness. Organisations such as Rotary and Habitat for Humanity, have provided help to local people to build cyclone-proof housing, while many others such as Save the Children, World Vision, Caritas and Oxfam are always swift to help following a natural disaster.

Clearly missing is a strategy within the Pacific Plan to speed up the implementation of the Pacific Islands Framework for Action on Climate Change 2006-2015 and the Pacific Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Management Framework for Action 2006-2015. In the light of the IPCC report, 2015 could be too late. New Zealand should be doing its bit now to ensure that national management plans for all Pacific Island countries can be designed and implemented more quickly.

The focus of any strategy needs to be on community preparedness as well as projects such as cyclone-proofing houses, strengthening wharves, reinforcing airstrips so that they can withstand flooding and planning for relocation of coastal communities already threatened by coastal erosion. There must be more emphasis on infrastructure and planning that addresses the effects of climate change before a potential stream of climate refugees becomes an impending flood. 

If tourism falls off and food and water supply becomes increasingly threatened, the whole economic and environmental viability of many in the Pacific Islands could be under increasing pressure.

As a Pacific country, New Zealand needs to provide the necessary resources, including funding, to ensure that the climate change aspects of the Pacific Plan are implemented quickly. It is inevitable that the government will also have to significantly increase its level of aid, currently one of the lowest in the OECD as a percentage of our national income.

Climate change may result in an environmental and economic crisis in our own neighbourhood. This time the government will need to take a lead, become increasingly global in its outlook, and dig deeper into its own coffers. 

Rae Julian is Executive Director of the Council for International Development